Vice President when Kamala Harris received Democratic PartyCandidacy after the Presidency Joe Biden He abruptly withdrew from the race in July, and soon a gap opened up between him and the race. Republican rival, Donald Trumpin national polls.

But that gap, which peaked at an average of 3.7 points in August according to 538’s poll tracker, has since narrowed to just 1.2, leaving nothing to separate Harris and Trump in the battleground states.

Harris will face Trump on Tuesday, November 5. More than half of registered voters (54 percent) plan to cast their votes before election day, according to an October Gallup poll.

The seven battleground states in the 2024 presidential election are: Pennsylvania (19 votes in the Electoral College), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). ).

The vice president has put abortion rights, the cost of living, the housing shortage and Trump’s character, among other issues, at the forefront of his campaign alongside the Democratic candidate, the Minnesota Governor. Tim Walz.

So what is the most likely path for Trump to 270, the threshold for victory in the Electoral College? news week He asked pollsters and strategists for their opinions. Here’s what they said.

Nate Lerner, Principal, Build the Wave LLC

Kamala’s best path to victory is the blue wall; if he wins PA he will almost certainly win MI and WI too, giving him enough electoral votes.

Josh Clinton, Vanderbilt Poll Co-Director

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Harris. He needs these.

Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US Public Affairs, Ipsos

Kamala Harris is trying to rebuild Biden’s winning coalition of voters from 2020. This was complicated by high living costs dampening enthusiasm and, most likely, latent sexism in some parts of this coalition. But there is also an opportunity to win over older voters, who make up the majority of the electorate. Democrats for the first time in decades. If he can win voters over 65, he will probably win the election.

Matt McDermott, Senior Vice President, Whitman Insight Strategies

If you look at the seven battleground states, I think he’s probably best positioned in Michigan and Pennsylvania, both public and internal polls. If you take those two states, you’re close enough to need another one.

What I think is really interesting about this cycle is that while there are seven battleground states, there are some differences between them for Harris and Trump. If he can manage to win in Michigan and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, it will become a matter of the third phase. He needs Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia.

The challenge for Trump is that if he can lock down Michigan and possibly Pennsylvania, he needs to win all of those states. So I think the easiest and most obvious path for Harris is Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

His benefit is that if he loses Wisconsin, there are other paths there. While he could potentially win North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona, Trump needs to win each one to have a chance of getting past 270.

John Zogby, Senior Partner, John Zogby Strategies

The battleground states are so tight that there is less need for Harris to win the entire Blue Wall because she is so competitive in the South Coast states.

But he really needs Michigan and Pennsylvania because they have the most electoral votes and increase his chances. When you add Wisconsin, it is at 268 and it is expected to take the region in Nebraska. Now it’s connected.

David Paleologos, Director, Suffolk University Center for Political Studies

Pennsylvania.

Charles Franklin, Director, Marquette Law School Survey

For Harris, that means winning WI, MI and PA. That would give him 270 electoral votes (assuming he wins the Omaha NE congressional district where he appears to be leading).

NV would increase its electoral votes, but if it loses one of the Great Lakes states, it won’t be able to carry it. It’s a long shot he gets NC.

It is also possible that we may see all the dominoes fall in the same direction, albeit with very small differences, in which case the electoral votes may not be as exciting as they were in 2020. But in which direction?

Dr. Richard Groper, Department of Political Science, California State University

The surest path to victory for Kamala is the same blue wall (MI, WI, PA) that Biden won in 2020 and the only vote likely to go to Democrats in the Nebraska Electoral College.

But since polls show he is literally tied in each of the battleground states, he could lose one of the battleground states and replace it with any combination of the remaining states (AZ, NV, GA, NC) as long as there is an Electoral College. votes are formed by losing one of the blue wall states.