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Harris vs Trump: How ‘the fate of the world’ depends on US elections

Harry November 3, 2024

When voters in the United States go to the polls next week, they will hold in their hands the fate of not only their nation, but possibly the world.

The presidential elections are taking place at a tumultuous time globally, with violent conflict in the Middle East, a war in Ukraine and the rising power of China challenging US influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

How these geopolitical issues continue to play out may be influenced by these factors: or The next US president is elected.

“Whether we like it or not, the world actually revolves around what’s happening in the US,” Emma Shortis, senior fellow on international and security issues at public policy think tank the Australia Institute, told SBS News.

“It’s by far the most important economy in the world, it’s the most important military, and I think the fate of the world depends largely on what happens in the United States.”

Concern about ‘Democratic instability’

The United States has long viewed itself as the beacon of democracy and the last remaining superpower since the end of the Cold War in 1991.

But Shortis said concerns have grown over the past decade about the US’s “tremendous influence” over the rest of the world.

“Historically, he was often seen as an advocate of what was described as the ‘international rules-based order,’ but especiallyand elsewhere, I think some real concerns have been expressed about the United States’ commitment to this and to international law,” he said.

Combined with “democratic instability” in the United States, many of that country’s allies are rightfully worried about what the future holds, Shortis said.

“That’s why we’re all watching this so closely, and that’s why I think there are really real concerns about what’s going to happen, especially post-election, depending on how close it is and how bad the instability has gotten.”

Ian Parmeter, a research fellow at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University, agrees that the outcome of this election and how it is handled could pose a threat to democracy around the world.

“Trump’s refusal to accept the outcome of the 2020 election was clearly not a good look for democracy.” and invaded the Capitol,” he told SBS News.

“If Trump contests the result once again, it will be a bad look for democracy, and countries that are only semi-democracies at this stage will certainly not be encouraged to continue democracy if they see the world’s leading democracy behaving in this way.”

US policy regarding the Hamas-Israel war

The United States and Israel have been close allies since the founding of the Jewish state in 1948.

do not follow The Biden administration has repeatedly confirmed its support for the terrorist organization in the attack last year, in which more than 1,200 people were killed and approximately 250 people were taken hostage, according to the Israeli government. .

The United States has spent at least US$17.9 billion ($27 billion) on military aid to Israel since October 7, according to a Brown University report. .

Subsequent Israeli bombardment of Gaza led to the deaths of approximately 43,000 people, according to the Gaza health ministry. The attacks also damaged or destroyed most of the buildings in the coastal area and displaced approximately 90 percent of the population.

There was hope among some progressives early in Harris’ presidential campaign “Medium American support for Israel,” Shortis said.

“But as his candidacy progressed, it became clear that he remained in line with the Biden administration, providing unequivocal support for Israel and continuing to characterize Iran as the number one enemy of the United States,” he said.

Whether that stance changes after the election will depend on how much pressure Harris faces from progressive Democrats and the makeup of her cabinet, Shortis said.

“Contrary to mounting pressure from the grassroots, there are also suggestions that Harris appoint a Republican to her cabinet or even have a Republican serve as secretary of state,” he said.

Parmeter said Donald Trump would be “much more pro-Israel.”

“Trump will probably give much more free rein” “He has to do whatever it takes to win the war,” he said.

“I think Trump will accept Israel’s need to keep troops in Gaza; Netanyahu has made it clear that he will insist on this.”

Parmeter said Trump’s support would likely extend to Israel’s targets in Lebanon, where there are longstanding hostilities with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. with Iran, earlier this month.

“But equally I think Trump would probably want the war to end as soon as possible,” he said.

Shortis argued that it was difficult to say “with certainty” what Trump’s stance on the Middle East would be, noting that his policy positions “mostly depend on who he talks to last.”

“I think it’s not clear yet what exactly the Trump administration might do, that power might fall in this administration between people like the vice president and the positions of others who oppose American support for war anywhere,” he said. .

US policy in Ukraine

Parmeter said that when it comes to Ukraine, “there’s a lot that depends on this election.”

The Biden administration has provided more than US$64.1 billion ($97.5 billion) in military aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Shortis and Parmeter said that as president, Harris, like Biden, will try to continue her support for Ukraine, but her success will ultimately depend on how many Democrats are in Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and all 34 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs on November 5.

“Far-right Republicans who oppose American support for Ukraine, which stems from an ideological alignment with Putin’s Russia, have provided a lot of funding and support for Ukraine in Congress,” Shortis said. he said.

Parmeter noted: Russia has managed to make “significant advances” in eastern Ukraine.

“If both the House and the Senate flip to Republicans, the Harris administration may face much more difficulty in pursuing this policy,” he said.

“They will definitely have to find a way to work with the Republican-controlled Congress.”

Shortis, meanwhile, said that Trump, as president, made it “very clear” that the United States would not continue its support for Ukraine.

He also claimed that he could .

Parmeter said that may be the case, but that it would be “very bad news” for Ukraine.

“I think, unfortunately, he (Trump) might be able to get this done pretty well on day one by saying there will be no more American funding for Ukraine’s war effort,” he said.

“I think Trump will probably aim to end the war shortly after taking office, even if he can’t end it on day one.”

US policy towards China

Shortis said U.S. treatment of China was one of the “very few” foreign policy areas of the bipartisan agreement.

During Trump’s first presidency in 2018, he imposed a 25 percent tariff on a range of imports from China to the United States. .

The use of “pretty aggressive economic tactics” to try to rein in China’s growing influence continues under Biden, Shortis said, pointing to his administration’s tariffs on imports such as electric vehicles.

“I think we’ve also seen that the Biden administration is using the Pacific as a staging ground for great power competition and viewing much of the Pacific as sort of a pawn in a security game with China,” he said.

Shortis said this situation will likely continue if Harris is elected, but there is potential to “rethink and reshape” the US’s approach to the region.

“I think there will be more opportunities for the Pacific to advocate for a change in that stance and advocate for a greater focus on climate action and nonproliferation commitments, as the Biden administration did initially.” in question.

Under the Trump administration, U.S. tariffs on imported goods will likely become “even more extreme,” and that won’t just apply to China, Parmeter said.

“He said he would look at 10 per cent tariffs on all countries and that would be worrying for Australia, but he would also impose a 60 per cent tariff on all Chinese goods and then look at others. There are possibilities beyond that,” he said.

“All of this could go to the World Trade Organization and international legal action could be taken against it, but how the relationship with China develops will be crucial.”

Shortis suggested that Trump’s “belligerent promises” about China may not come true.

“What Trump will do is unpredictable – and that is of great concern – as much of his rhetoric on trade has been particularly aggressive and would be incredibly destabilizing not only for the US economy, but also for the global economy more broadly,” he said.

“But we also know, of course, that and may see it as a political opportunity to pursue a ‘deal’ with China.”

Whether any agreement will be expanded to support the United States is also in the air.

The relationship with China “will be extremely important to both sides of U.S. politics over the next four years,” Parmeter said.

Additional reporting by Tanya Dendrinos

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