More than 1 million people evacuated much of the south, fleeing the bombardment. Some experts say Israel may aim to create a depopulated buffer zone along its Gaza border, a strategy it has already implemented.

Some conditions appear to already exist for such a region, according to an Associated Press analysis of satellite images and data collected by mapping experts showing the extent of destruction in 11 villages near the border.

The Israeli military said the bombardment was necessary to destroy tunnels and other infrastructure that Hezbollah said were buried in the towns. The explosions also destroyed homes, neighborhoods, and sometimes entire villages where families had lived for generations.

Israel says it aims to push Hezbollah back far enough that its citizens can safely return to their homes in the north, but Israeli officials admit they have no concrete plans to keep Hezbollah away from the border in the long term. This is the main focus of US efforts to broker a ceasefire.

Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s immediate goal is not to create a buffer zone, but that could change.

“Perhaps we will have no choice but to stay there until an agreement is reached that assures us that Hezbollah will not return to the region,” he said.

Troops entered southern Lebanon on October 1, backed by heavy bombardment that has intensified since then.

Using satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs PBC, the AP found that a stretch of 11 villages, all within 4 miles of Lebanon’s border with Israel, was severely damaged last month by attacks by Israeli soldiers or detonations of explosives.

Analysis found that the most intense damage in the south occurred in the villages closest to the border, with probably 100 to 500 buildings destroyed or damaged in each, according to Corey Scher of the CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Der Hoek of Oregon State University. damage assessments.

In Ramyah, barely a single structure still stands on the hill in the middle of the village, following a controlled explosion that Israeli soldiers appear to have carried out themselves in videos posted on social media. In the next town, Aita al-Shaab (a village with strong Hezbollah influence), shelling reduced the hill with the highest density of buildings to a pile of gray rubble.

In other villages, the damage is more selective. In some, shelling shattered blocks of houses; In others, some houses were destroyed while their neighbors remained intact.

Another controlled explosion destroyed much of the village of Odeissah; There was such a powerful explosion that an earthquake alarm was issued in Israel.

In videos of the explosion, Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra conductor Lubnan Baalbaki watched in astonishment as his father’s home, which housed the art collection and library he had built over the years, was destroyed.

“This house was a project and a dream for both of my parents,” he told the AP. His parents’ graves in the garden are now missing.

When asked whether its intention was to create a buffer zone, the Israeli military said it “conducts local, limited, targeted raids based on precise intelligence” against Hezbollah targets. The Israeli army said Hezbollah “deliberately placed weapons” in homes and villages.

Israeli journalist Danny Kushmaro even helped blow up a house that the military said was used to store Hezbollah ammunition. In one television episode, Kushmaro and soldiers counted down before pressing a button, causing a massive explosion.

Videos posted online by the Israeli army and individual soldiers show Israeli troops planting a flag on Lebanese territory. Israel, however, neither built a base nor maintained a permanent presence in southern Lebanon. Troops appear to be moving back and forth along the border, sometimes under intense fire from Hezbollah.

October was the deadliest month of 2024 for the Israeli army, with nearly 60 soldiers killed.

The bombardment was interrupted by Israeli attacks on UN troops and the Lebanese Army, which is required to maintain peace in the region under international law. Israel has long complained that its presence does not prevent Hezbollah from building its infrastructure in the south.

Israel denies targeting either force.

The Lebanese army said at least 11 of its soldiers were killed in eight Israeli attacks, either in their positions or assisting in evacuations.

The peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL said its forces and infrastructure had been damaged at least 30 times since late September, blaming Israeli military fire or actions for nearly 20 of them; “seven were clearly intentional.”

UNIFIL spokeswoman Andrea Tenenti said a rocket, possibly fired by Hezbollah or an allied group, hit UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura on Tuesday, causing some minor injuries.

UNIFIL has refused to leave southern Lebanon, despite calls from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for them to leave.

Experts warn that the situation could change if peacekeepers come under more fire.

“If you go from the UN to the UN, which is actually taking casualties,” said Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group, “some of the countries sending troops may say ‘enough is enough’ and you can see the mission starting to fall apart.”

International ceasefire efforts appear to be focused on implementing UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

It stated that Israeli forces would withdraw completely from Lebanon, and that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL (not Hezbollah) would be the only armed entities approximately 25 kilometers from the border.

However, the decision was not fully implemented. Hezbollah has never left the border area, and Lebanon accuses Israel of continuing to occupy small areas of its territory and carrying out frequent military flights over its territory.

A new agreement is needed to implement Resolution 1701, US envoy Amos Hochstein said during his recent visit to Beirut.

Israel may be trying to pressure a deal into existence through the destruction taking place in southern Lebanon.

Yossi Yehoshua, military correspondent for Israel-based newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote that the army must “further consolidate its operational successes” to force Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and mediator countries to accept “an end (of the war) under favorable conditions.” For Israel.”

Some Lebanese fear this could mean an occupation of parts of the south, 25 years after Israel ended its occupation there.

Lebanese parliamentarian Mark Daou, who has criticized both Hezbollah and Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, said he believed Israel was trying to weaken Hezbollah’s capabilities and turn the Lebanese people “against their will to resist Israeli attacks.”

Gowan of the International Crisis Group said one purpose of Resolution 1701 was to give the Lebanese army enough credibility that it would be seen as the “legitimate defender” in the south, not Hezbollah.

“If they become (Israel’s) gendarmerie in southern Lebanon, this situation will go away,” he said.