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    • Damage costs for 2024 hurricane season in the US are rising rapidly, according to forecasts
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    Damage costs for 2024 hurricane season in the US are rising rapidly, according to forecasts

    Harry Posted on

    Preliminary economic loss data indicate that 2024 will be one of the costliest hurricane seasons of the modern era.

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    Disastrous 2024 hurricane season after five hurricanes make landfall in the United States mainland It may not be over yet. With more than a month to go, forecasters are watching for a development Potential storm in the Caribbean.

    Even without another storm, the initial toll in economic losses (initial estimates are between $127 billion and $129 billion) means this will be one of the costliest hurricane seasons of the modern era.

    It can be difficult to compare estimated damages from hurricanes over time, but losses after the peak hurricane season in 2005 rose from about $175 billion to more than $200 billion when adjusted for inflation. Since 1980, losses per hurricane have averaged $23 billion. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    “This is a very impactful season overall,” said Jeff Waters, director of North Atlantic Hurricane Models for Moody’s, a global research and analysis firm. “Here we definitely fall into a category where this season will stand out in terms of collective insured losses.”

    So far, disaster season produced 10 tornadoesIncluding four major hurricanes and five other named storms. Evidence of the devastation is spread across at least eight states.

    More than 300 people have died in the United States. The search for missing people and efforts to restore public services in the mountains of North Carolina continue. Massive piles of debris cover the streets of communities across Florida.

    In a recently published preliminary reportGallagher Re, a global reinsurance broker, said it “conservatively” estimates the total economic loss from Helene and Milton alone at more than $100 billion.

    Billions in damage during 2024 hurricane season

    Moody’s, Gallagher Re and real estate data and analysis firm CoreLogic have released preliminary estimates of insured losses and economic costs of storms. Here’s a summary:

    Beryl – After beating the Caribbean and setting records for earliest Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, Beryl reached Matagorda, Texas, on July 8 with winds reaching 80 mph. its remnants spawned more than 60 tornadoes Rain fell in the Northeast, killing at least 38 people, according to the Associated Press.

    Insured losses in the United States are estimated to be between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion. Total economic losses, including the Virgin Islands, were estimated at more than $7.5 billion.

    Debbie – It was the second hurricane to hit the same Florida county in less than a year, Debby washed ashore near Steinhatchee It struck as a Category 1 hurricane on August 5, then made landfall again near Bulls Bay, South Carolina, three days later as a tropical storm.

    Estimates of insured losses range from $1.5 billion to $3.4 billion, while Gallagher Re estimates overall economic losses at an estimated $7 billion.

    Francine – Francine quickly became a Category 2 hurricane after forming in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and Made landfall in Terrebonne County on the Louisiana coast just three days later, on September 11, with winds of 100 miles per hour.

    Insured losses are estimated at $1.5 billion to $2 billion, while economic losses are estimated at $15 billion.

    Helen – Helene quickly grew into a major hurricane after forming in the Northwest Caribbean. this happened Third hurricane to hit Florida’s Taylor County in just 13 months It made landfall on September 26 with winds of 140 mph. By maintaining high wind speeds and helping to increase heavy rainfall, caused damage in the Southeast, to contain Severe flooding and landslides in North Carolina and Tennessee.

    To date, 227 deaths have been blamed on the hurricane. Insured losses are estimated at between $8 billion and $17.5 billion.

    milton – The tiny storm developed into winds of more than 180 miles per hour in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Before hitting Florida as a Category 3 hurricane Just a month after Helene. State officials reported that at least 29 people died.

    The storm caused an estimated $17 billion to $36 billion in economic losses. The majority of insured losses were between $13 billion and $22 billion from wind damage, according to CoreLogic, but that doesn’t include all 43 hurricanes that hit the southern half of Florida.

    As Milton approached landfall, “it interacted with the jet stream over the southeastern United States, causing winds on the north and northwest sides of the hurricane (which are generally known to be weaker) to be unusually strong,” said Daniel Betten, director of forensic meteorology at CoreLogic. As a result, the storm created “two separate lines of damaging, hurricane-force winds.”

    Moody’s estimated that Helene and Milton together could cost the National Flood Insurance Program more than $5 billion, while Gallagher Re estimated the total cost of the two storms would be more than $100 billion.

    Which hurricane season caused the most economic damage?

    Unfortunately, other recent seasons also stand out. 2022 included Ianor 2017, with Harvey, Irma and Mariasaid Waters.

    It can be difficult to compare hurricane seasons in terms of costs over time. More people than ever before live in hurricane-prone areas with more expensive properties. Research studies also indicate that structures are being built with stronger building code requirements than in the past.

    Roger Pielke Jr., who has been a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder for decades. He worked with other scientists. Studies dating back to the 1900s to normalize losses during hurricane season We not only adjust for inflation, but also calculate wealth and coastal population. Pielke continues to update figures every year.

    The latest preliminary normalized estimates for 2024 provided by Pielke on Wednesday and previous studies indicate that the 1926 season with the Great Miami Hurricane will be considered the costliest season in history at approximately $308 billion. The hurricane caused devastating damage in Miami and along the Gulf Coast.

    The infamous 2005 hurricane season is the second costliest on record on the normalized list, with total damage estimated at $215 billion after seven hurricanes, including Katrina, hit the US. Normalized losses from the 1900 season, which included the Galveston hurricane, put it in third place with $176 billion.

    When Pielke’s latest preliminary estimates are adjusted for inflation in 2024 dollars only, the 2005, 2017, and 2022 hurricane seasons rank Nos. 1, 2, and 3 at $173 billion, $127 billion, and $118 billion.

    increasing concerns

    Inland precipitation increased to 31.33 inches. Seen before and during Helene in Busick, North Carolina. and the resulting increase in flood-related deaths has become a growing concern for residents, the National Hurricane Center, and the insurance industry.

    Waters said this summer’s flood losses, like those seen in the North Carolina mountains and storm surge along the Florida coast, underscore a key concern: the gap between those with flood insurance and those without. Activities over the last 5-7 years “highlight the need to close this gap.”

    Improving the ability to predict risks

    One of the challenges for agents and insurers trying to write insurance is understanding the evolving landscape, Waters said.

    Part of that, he said, is learning to use catastrophe models developed to try to quantify near-term risk and look into the future, including how a warming world will affect specific hazards. “Climate change is definitely an area of ​​increasing interest.”

    The Gallagher Re report indicates that 2024 will remain the warmest year ever officially recorded. The following statements were made in the statement: “The fingerprints of climate change continue to be more evident in individual events.”

    Harry
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