By MARC LEVY

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in the Rust Belt, the Rocky Mountains and the American Southwest as the two major political parties portray their rival candidates as extremists in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate.

More than $1 billion in spending is expected by November 5 in just three races (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana).

racing too Ohio It could break the spending record for Senate races. racing too Montana It will be the most expensive Senate race ever, per vote. And later in the game, Democrats are sending millions more to Texas, a GOP stronghold; here the party has new hopes of defeating the two-term conservative stalwart Senator. Ted Cruza sadness that could help them maintain their majority.

To capture an outright majority, Republicans need to pick up two seats, one of which is: West Virginia – GOP has it all in its bag.

Other breeds are more variable and less predictable.

For Democrats, the grim math of this year’s election cycle forces them to defend eight seats in tough states. Losses from the incumbents could amount to an extinction-level event for Democrats who reliably represent Republican states.

The election will also test the down-ballot strength of both parties. Wisconsin, Michigan And Pennsylvaniaprominent presidential battleground states known as the Blue Wall because of their relatively reliable Democratic voting history. A Republican win here would dramatically change the Senate playing field.

Data from political ad tracking firm AdImpact predicts more than $2.5 billion will be spent on ads in Senate races this two-year campaign cycle, just above the 2022 total.

This includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, $340 million in Pennsylvania, and $280 million in Montana, population 1.1 million; that is, less than one-tenth of the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate race ever was Democrats’ race John Ossoff victory of Georgia competition He advanced to a runoff in 2021, deciding on Senate control, according to data from the campaign finance watchdog Unlock Secrets.

In general, campaign strategists say the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump In the Senate battleground states, he votes before his party’s Senate candidates, while Democratic candidates in these states vote before their own presidential candidates. Kamala Harris.

This means there is a slice of voters who may vote for Trump in Senate races but do not support Republicans or may split their tickets with Democratic Senate candidates.

FILE – This combination of images shows, from left to right, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno in Vandalia, Ohio. March 16, 2024. (AP Photo by Mariam Zuhaib and AP Photo by Jeff Dean, File)

FILE – This composite of images shows, from left to right, Democratic Maryland Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks in Chicago on Aug. 20, 2024, and Republican challenger former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan in Annapolis on Aug. 27, 2024. (AP Photo by Erin Hooley, left; and AP Photo by Stephanie Scarbrough, File)

FILE – This combination of images shows, from left to right, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, are shown in Chicago on Aug. 22, 2022. 2024. (AP Photo Sue Ogrocki, left; and Paul Sancya, File)

FILE – This combination of images shows left-wing Independent Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn in Omaha, Neb., on May 15, 2024, and rival Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., shows up in Washington on March 14. 2023. (Nikos Frazier/Omaha World-Herald via AP, left; and AP Photo by Alex Brandon, File)

FILE – This combination of images shows, from left to right, Republican Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake on July 30, 2024, and rival U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., in Phoenix on October 9, 2024. (AP Photo by Ross Franklin, left; and Cheryl Evans/Arizona Republic via AP, File)

FILE – This combination of images shows, from left, Republican Pennsylvania Senate candidate David McCormick and his opponent, Sen., in Pittsburgh on Sept. 21, 2023. Bob Casey, D-Pa., is seen in Chicago on Aug. 22. 2024. (AP Photo Gene J. Puskar, left; and AP Photo Paul Sancya, File)

FILE – This combination of images shows, from left to right, Republican Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers on October 3, 2024 in University Center, Michigan, and rival U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) on September 2, 2024 in Detroit. It shows. , 2024. (AP Photo Alex Brandon, left; and AP Photo Paul Sancya, File)

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FILE – This combination of images shows, from left to right, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno in Vandalia, Ohio. March 16, 2024. (AP Photo by Mariam Zuhaib and AP Photo by Jeff Dean, File)

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Such divisions are rare. Voters supported Democrats in Maine in 2020 Joe Biden He was nominated for president and re-elected as a Republican Senator. susan collinsfor example.

Republican strategists said they expect the party’s major super PACs to spend by election day in seven states where Democrats hold Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races, but also Nevada And ArizonaWhere Republicans are encouraged by strong early voting numbers.

Republicans are confident about flipping the seat in deep-red Montana. Tim Sheehy He is challenging Democrat Sen for a third term. Jon Tester. They’re also optimistic about Republicans having a reliably red Ohio. Bernie Moreno He is challenging Democrat Sen for a third term. Sherrod Brown.

American Crossroads pulled $2.8 million from Montana, while the duo funneled several million more to Pennsylvania, said Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for a pair of pro-Republican super PACs.

There, Republican David McCormick is trying to unseat three-term Democratic Senator. Bob Casey on a presidential battleground undercard that both sides say is close.

McCormick, the former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, sent the message in two debates that Casey was “a sure thing” about supporting the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.

Recently, Casey began running an ad touting a “greed” law to pursue price gouging in conservative areas. “Casey attacked Biden for protecting fracking” and “stands with Trump” on trade and tariffs, the ad states.

Republicans say Casey’s ad featuring Trump is similar to the Senator’s TV ad. tammy baldwin of Wisconsin is airing and speaks to the need for both Democrats to protect themselves against Harris’ vulnerability in their state.

“They hope to rob enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.

Yet Casey ran a similar ad when he won handily in the 2018 midterm elections — although Trump was not mentioned in the ad — while Casey’s campaign notes that he has long broken away from Democrats over his opposition to free trade agreements and support of fossil fuel energy projects.

Democrats, by contrast, say they forced competitive contests in Texas and the U.S., two red states, toward the end of the campaign. Nebraska. Removing incumbent Republicans from one or both of those seats could help Democrats maintain at least a 50-50 split in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.

U.S. Representative in Texas. Colin AllredA former professional football player, he has proven his adept at small-dollar fundraising in his struggle to incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Allred outperformed every Senate candidate nationally except Tester and Brown.