The starting point was previous research in which epidemiological models were fitted to predict heat-related deaths in summer 2022, using temperature and death records from 35 European countries. Using a dataset of global mean surface temperature anomalies between 1880 and 2022, they made the prediction. increasing temperatures due to anthropogenic warming for each region. They then subtracted these increases from recorded temperatures to obtain an estimate of what temperatures would have been if anthropogenic warming had not occurred. Finally, using the model developed in the first study, they estimated the mortality rate for a hypothetical scenario in which these temperatures might occur.

The results were published on: npj Climate and Atmospheric Scienceshowed that the number of heat-related deaths per million people attributed to anthropogenic warming was twice as high in Southern regions compared to the rest of Europe.

In line with previous studies, the team found that heat-related deaths attributed to climate change were higher among women (22,501 of 37,983 deaths) and people aged 80 and over (23,881 of 38,978 deaths) compared to men (14,026). of 25,385 deaths) and people aged 64 and under (2,702 of 5,565 deaths).

“This study sheds light on the extent to which global warming is affecting public health. Although we observed an increase in heat-related deaths in almost all of the countries analysed, not everyone is equally affected; women and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to adverse effects. ISGlobal researcher and first author of the study Thessa Beck “Due to rising temperatures,” he says.

Urgent need for ambitious adaptation and mitigation measures

Temperatures in Europe are rising twice as fast as the global average, and adverse health impacts are further increasing. However, climate change has not only increased heat-related deaths during extremely hot summer months, as in 2022. According to the study’s findings, 44% to 54% of heat-related summer deaths between 2015 and 2021 can be attributed to global warming. In absolute terms, this corresponds to an annual death burden of between 19,000 and 28,000. By comparison, figures for 2022 show an alarming 40% increase in heat-related deaths and a two-thirds increase in deaths attributed to anthropogenic warming.

“Our study calls on governments and national authorities in Europe to increase the determination and effectiveness of surveillance and prevention measures, new adaptation strategies and global mitigation efforts. Unless strong action is taken, record temperatures and heat-related deaths will continue to rise around the world in the coming years.” ” says Joan Ballester ClaramuntEuropean Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT Principal Investigator