After a tough showing with five picks on Monday, I plan to bounce back on Tuesday night as the 2024-25 NBA season reaches the one-week mark.

Every year there will be some variability early in the season, but the aim is to start to sort this out over the coming weeks as players begin to find their level after a cold or hot start to the season.

On Tuesday, we have a four-game slate with multiple teams (Dallas, Denver, Utah and Sacramento) playing on the second night of a back-to-back.

There is also an important injury to consider; Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry will not be able to play on Tuesday due to an ankle injury. Does this give the New Orleans Pelicans value as small road favorites?

Here’s a breakdown of my top plays for Tuesday’s action:

Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record is here (including futures). You can also follow my daily games. BetStamp is here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Julius Randle Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 units

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle got off to a fast start with his new team, averaging 24.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting 62.8% from the field and 53.8% from three-point range.

Minnesota moves into a Western Conference Finals rematch with the Dallas Mavericks tonight, with Dallas playing its second night of a back-to-back following Monday’s win over the Utah Jazz.

Randle could be in line for a big game after grabbing nine rebounds in two of his first three games. Despite playing alongside Rudy Gobert, Randle still sees chances at 14.0 rebounds per game, and we only need him to grab eight rebounds to eliminate that assist.

This is a great matchup as Dallas allows 49.7 opponent rebounds per game, good for 25th in the NBA.

Jules has averaged at least 9.2 rebounds per game in each of his last five seasons. Scoring at least eight goals on Tuesday night is a great bet.

Domantas Sabonis Triple-Double (+450) – 0.5 units

Triple-double backing at +450? From where!

Sacramento Kings big man Domantas Sabonis led the NBA in triple-doubles last season and once again played in the first three games this season.

On Tuesday, he and the Kings will face the Jazz, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league (28th in defensive rating) through three games.

Sabonis’ key here is his assists. He will grab 10 rebounds and score 10 points; Last season, he could not make a double-double in only five games.

Utah is allowing 30 opponent assists per game so far this season (the most in the NBA), so Sabonis should be able to provide a comfortable look for his teammates. Sabonis, who collected just a dime in the Kings’ season opener, has 10 and seven assists in his last two contests. He also averages 12.3 potential assists per game.

This sprinkling is worth it on Tuesday.

New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (-155) vs. Golden State Warriors

As I mentioned, the Warriors are without Curry on Tuesday, which puts them in a tough spot against a New Orleans team that also lost Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III.

The Pelicans are off to a strange start; After beating the Chicago Bulls by double digits, Portland barely beat the Trail Blazers and then lost to Portland by more than 20 points over the weekend.

I think this is a rallying point for the Pelicans, who don’t have a traditional center playing significant minutes because they’re facing a smaller Golden State team.

The Warriors are content to play Trayce Jackson-Davis and Draymond Green as their primary big men, which shouldn’t cause a matchup problem for the Pels. In fact, that might encourage head coach Willie Green to downsize with his best squad.

Last season, Golden State was just 3-5 in games Curry missed and was 25-27 overall in the past three seasons when Curry, the two-time MVP, was out.

I don’t believe Golden State has enough offense to beat the Pels, even at home on Tuesday night.

Rates are updated periodically and may change.

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